It’s pouring polls! In a democracy like India this happens every two years or so. It’s a complete circus with all kinds of tricks including rabbit being pulled out of thin air!
Interestingly this is the only time what I do for a living becomes significant!! Suddenly people discover I have a job that adds some value to their lives…my opinion is sought out. At all other times, if someone asks me what I do and I say I have a market research agency – people are like what do you do?? Is it something you do everyday? Achcha!
Much like the BCCI has to listen to a billion suggestions on the right cricket team and how they got the mix wrong we researchers are subjected to detailed scrutiny during this circus. People who have never been part of any research activity have opinions on the sample size, sampling methodology, place of interview, time, kind of questions, questionnaire design, type of interviews and so on and on!!! They obviously know it better than somebody who has been doing it for 30 years!!! Is 70,000 enough? Is 1.5 lakhs better? Should we ask questions in Minority areas atall? The social media is always hungry to listen to all these voices and decide that they are obviously right!
What amazes me is suddenly India is full of statisticians who understand biased responses, sampling errors, error margins! When we actually hunt for them let me tell you it’s really tough to find them!
All this will be put to test tomorrow when the nation will want to know which exit poll was right and which was wrong and why. When in reality we should discuss if the outcome of the elections is good for all of us as a country, it’s people, its businesses and as a group of ‘thinking’ people. If the outcome is different from the polls we must discuss why do people fear giving the right answers …in fact it’s not the polling companies who are wrong but the voters who have misled them. I am a realist who knows nothing of this sort will happen. The only discussions will be which poll was right and how they are the greatest predictors. There will be pats on the back for a few researchers.
And I know from the time next day when I meet someone and they ask me what do I do and I say market research, I will see a questions mark on their face once again till we are served another round of the same circus!!!
Soniya Mahajani
(A passionate researcher)